International Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Studies

Volume 1 - Issue 1 (1) | PP: 1 - 11 Language : العربية
DOI : https://doi.org/10.31559/IJHTS2020.1.1.1
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Using the ARIMA models to forecast international tourist arrivals in Algeria the period 1995-2030

Abdelkader Sahed ,
Hacen Kahoui
Received Date Revised Date Accepted Date Publication Date
31/5/2020 23/6/2020 11/7/2020 25/8/2020
Abstract
The tourism industry in Algeria is of great importance, especially after the revenues of the hydrocarbons sector have begun to decline, which makes tourism planning the only outlet that can be a source of economic diversification. In this study, the prediction of the number of foreign tourists arriving in Algeria during the period (1995-2030) was discussed. The data under study were initially studied descriptively using the central tendency measures and the Measures of dispersion, then stationary was studied and relying on the ADF test showed the series under study is stationary from the first degree, and the results of the analysis showed that the ARIMA model (3,1,0) is the best and appropriate model for predicting the number of foreign tourists arriving in Algeria for the period (2020-2030), as we note that there is an increasing flow of demand for tourism in Algeria, For this the relevant authorities must More interest in the tourism industry in Algeria.


How To Cite This Article
Sahed , A.& Kahoui , H. (2020). Using the ARIMA models to forecast international tourist arrivals in Algeria the period 1995-2030 . International Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Studies , 1 (1), 1-11, https://doi.org/10.31559/IJHTS2020.1.1.1

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